I started ranting about some stuff while I was writing the main section. I can't really consider this "need to know" information and I said I would keep the main section short. However I feel like I can provide some warnings that you will hopefully benefit from.
What job areas pay well? What does it mean in terms of the feeling-of-life to have a job that pays well, or poorly? What about "starving artists who are happy"? What about adjunct professors of theatre who work at a liquor store on the side .... for 20 years ... before getting a shot at a full-time "real job"?
What is the emotional life-cycle that goes along with middle-class life (job, marriage, house, kids, retirement)? How do the bo-ho's who step aside for a braver death feel in their day-to-day doings, what's it like to "be a poet" and work in the same kitchen for 25 years without any recognition of your greatness? [[See again my notes about poet laureates and where they com from economically. [[brodsky. harvard brooklyn couple i read about.]] ...]]
As I said at the top I'm writing this for a 16- or 19-year-old and I think the flimsy suppositions about work's effect on life are as powerful today as they were when I was that age.
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financing of a home (interest payments)
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amy poehler "you'll make it ... your friends getting houses and married"
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GNU dude .. superiority
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pg & vc's .. muy self-satisfied
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henry f
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danielson
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munilass "a résumé doesn't keep them warm at night"
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thiel 'the cycle never stops"
Obviously this is the area where I have the least ability to say something universally true. It's also the most important. I guess my opinion I would most like to convince you of, because I think the opposite view is virulent oison, is that
- profession is not personality
- (fuck "marry an architect because they have the best of both art and science" ... I can't believe mature people actually think that
- avocation does not need to be vocation (tweet : "do what you love and you'll never have a weekend off in your life" // tshirt: "I suffer from cruel and unusual employment")
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asness (Wrong)
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Blair Hull describes "fake liquidity" where traders stand on queue only if they're at the front. If a big order comes in behind them and pushes them through, then it will hopefully be a big enough order that you can turn right around and go the other direction, making a tick in the process.
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haim bodek (not respected) describes something similar
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eric hunsader and sal xxxx are not respected by industry people
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mech markets https://mechanicalmarkets.wordpress.com/2015/01/13/trader-type-and-order-age/
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alexandre laumonier is respected by indsutry people https://sniperinmahwah.wordpress.com/. An anthropologist, if you follow through his links you can see marketing by Mackay Brothers, who sell the microwave towers.
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volcube
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BATS BYX and the competitive landscape for exchanges
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oystacher/ cme
Milton Friedman's alternative to the minimum wage is to pay low wage workers instead of taxing them. Even though he was a conservative, Friedman never thought the negative tax on low-paid workers was high enough during his lifetime.
Software companies aren't "more ethical" than fast food companies because their employees happen to be white collar. Actually it's maybe the other way around, since providing employment to the least powerful is a social good. Anyway, however you slice it, poverty is everyone's problem, so everyone should contribute.
A negative tax has the further upside that it increases tax-filing rates, and the further downside that you don't want your income to come all at once during the year, especially if you are scraping by.
Luigi Zingales, a "professor of entrepreneurship and risk" who has taken no risks and never started a company, cites venture capital as a great example of an American success story
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kauffman report
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crunchbase failures
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Interenet startups
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Paul Graham
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track record of TechStars
[[cultural clout --- PG submarine // buying ideology time]] ((institute for brand awareness — undergraduate essays))
It is way easier to produce and deliver software now than it was 20 years ago. Languages are better, the internet is a well developed physical delivery network, browsers are really good and everybody has one, smart phones are really good [[[penetration is ....]], ad networks ... , computational power is cheap and you can easily increment/decrement your purchase on
Not that people have web business models figured out. Or know what you, the fickle consumer, want. Or have even figured out ad targeting to the point that was promised in the 90's. [diulbert]
[[[spotify / ad post ... higher ]]]
But the costs are way lower. Of course I'm typing this into GitHub which is one of the more successful internet start-ups, at least measured by usage and effect it's had on the software world. (their profit levels ....)
- http://www.feld.com/archives/2005/08/term-sheet-series-wrap-up.html
- http://avc.com/2009/08/the-ideal-first-round-term-sheet/
- http://antiventurecapital.com/raise-startup-capital/venture-capital-math/
- software investment size vs biotech investment size
The legal theory is that a limited partner should be able to give money to a general partner who will do all the work.
[[[article claiming we can't "punish" the VC's
You can look up how much money they took in here: www.formds.com.
- icahn interview
- barbarians at the gate movie
People with big mouths who don't like to actually think or critically examine their own ideas are big on "the rise of the robots" now. The logic goes:
- U Scan
- .....
- jobz b gone!
https://twitter.com/isomorphisms/status/608317267793846272
What's in it for people throwing this kind of BS? I dunno. ((look up?))
Sissoko "economist's K to confuse us"
[[[big data picture]]]
we can look at who writes these HBR articles, because the authors are on linkedin.
https://twitter.com/isomorphisms/status/600123330851688448
https://t.co/loZXOEeQmJ
- smarter remarketer
- datacamp ? who advertised "still using spreadsheets? use our dashboard"
- twitter profiles with "i 3 dataz"
Guru jerks will tell you that you should become rich enough to live off interest. This doesn't make sense for a variety of reasons, for example the obvious that if you can earn $20,000/year as a 2% coupon. Or that you risk spoiling your kids [[link]]. Or that work is not really that bad. But anyway it's all part of a pervasive ideology that wants to venerate wealth and capitalist achievement. Perhaps not surprising when buildings and chairs are named after capitalist donors rather than those who excelled in a field of human endeavour.
It's the kind of thing that makes sense if you think about it for a minute, but not if you think about it for a long time.
This is a hedge fund whose blowup had systemic consequences.
George Loewenstein's book notes that LTCM enjoyed lower haircuts because everyone wanted to do business with them.
This is consistent with
- Aaron Brown's [[[[and many others]]]]] assertion that execution, details, and terms of trade are what make for successful profit margins---fighting over every last basis point.
- Renaissance job postings for tax advisors. Again, tax savings are risk-free basis points.
Keynes, year, book_:
The avoidance of taxes is the only intellectual pursuit that carries any reward.
- nuclearphynance "It's easy to be a trader; be long vega and short gamma"
- Maymin, Geneakouplos
http://www.nuclearphynance.com/Show%20Post.aspx?PostIDKey=39814
- AmPad
- insurance quote (get out of it)
- noise traders & capital structure (bonds)
I don't want to waste too much time lampooning economists because I could go on forever about that and it's probably better to just point to the stuff you should read, rather than waste time engaging with the un-serious. I'll just point out that growth in the median (middle) purchasing power is a proxy for an easier, better life for "people", but then again so is the purchasing power of the lowest person. It's not even possible to rank-order these things----but my preferred measure is the power, freedom, and quality-of-life of "the least among you". We can at least get closer by looking at the 10th-percentile wage instead of the 50th-percentile.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Rn4CRu9pa4
^ Cathedrals, the antithesis of the lowest man's utility. All are humbled by their greatness and they prize the peak over the average.
- www.library.hbs.edu/go/execucomp.html
- https://www.nber.org/papers/w21131
- https://www.nber.org/feldstein_lecture_2012/feldsteinlecture_2012.html
- john h. biggs
- the federal government uses the highway fund to strong-arm states into doing what it wants [[[size]]]
- social security + medicaid + medicare +
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget
Constantino Bresciani-Turroni
Stay away while a newbie. The VIX is not a "fear index", and your home or rental price is not affected by "market information".
There is an unbelievable amount of FUD, deception, and downright evil in economics debates. From think tanks that are funded by rich people
- ravi batra
- self-help gurus
- self-appointed leadership experts
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Depression_of_1990
((pic of actual GDP from FRED))
- tax dude .. laffer
The worst example I know of http://isomorphism.es/post/46010268277/the-opportunity-to-get-rich-to-attain-unto-great Russell Horton Cownay, an evil guru who got rich selling self-hatred and cheapo advice (under the guise of Christianity no less!) to working-class Americans. He got enough money doing this to start his own university, Temple University in Philadelphia.
Of course there are also just a lot of bad rich people in history.
- Alfred Nobel
- William Andrews Clark, copper monopolist, senator, marrier of women 60 years his junior, in the words of Mark Twain "as rotten a human being as can be found anywhere under the flag; he is a shame to the American nation, and no one has helped to send him to the Senate who did not know that his proper place was the penitentiary, with a ball and chain on his legs. To my mind he is the most disgusting creature that the republic has produced since Tweed's time", Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_A._Clark#Political_career Clark County, Nevada is named after him.
- Cecil Rhodes, racist, colonialist,
Wait, the Rhodes of Rhodes Scholarship? You betcha...
Why is Stanford called Stanford? It's named after Leland Stanford, a monopolist.....
Why is Duke called Duke? It's named after John B. Duke, a monopolist who .... [[wendell berry]]
Why is Vanderbilt called Vanderbilt? It was named after Cornelius Vanderbilt, a monopolist .... [[[Anderson Cooper]]
I don't know why the Quoran Reddit half of the internet thinks that capitalists are heroes and #hackdisrupt is David vs Goliath. I suspect it's just as little self-criticism as the Robert Reich half of the internet that thinks a survey of what Americans think the "fair income distribution should be" is a meaningful comment on the ideal ethical state, or people who cite Rawls, Nietzsche, Marx, or Judith Butler on any topic as if the opinion of an intellectual proves something.
[[inheritance section
[^ Maybe you will say that I'm just easily bilked by Wikipedia articles that are properly baited to my level and prejudices. [[The article on Mark Spitznagel for example did not work on me, it worked in reverse.]] That's fine if you think that, go read your own shit and educate yourself. You can come back and convince me with a pull request. ]
At the same time, governments with at least a few of their citizens watching have made a lot of data freely available. (You are probably just not looking at it because you're lazy and ignorant.)
- World Bank
- FRED
What kinds of things are companies ok to share with their competitors?
[[[the current trend in talking-about-entrepreneurship is "scratch your own itch" ... like open source ...
Generally a good sign if someone talks about this. If someone is talking about portfolio balance channels, it means they are measuring mass behaviour
What is in it for these bullshitters? My personal theory is that IBM spent __ developing Watson, MS spent __ developing Azure, and now they are going to tell people what to buy. I got this idea roughly from Robert X. Cringely, a longtime IBM critic:
[[cite]]
https://twitter.com/isomorphisms/status/472886185149227008
https://twitter.com/isomorphisms/status/503060309318578176
https://twitter.com/isomorphisms/status/494746764348784640
https://twitter.com/isomorphisms/status/509950138488328192 (deprofessionalisation)
- reports
- 60% Yale avocado
- buffett
- damn sal khan
- VC links
- rational questions
- acquisition examples
- oil n gas
- famous mergers
- instawhap
- other web exits
Run, don’t walk, away from these people. XOM is the largest component of the S&P with a market cap of __ (all 500 companies total __). [[source]]
North Americans do invest preferentially in the NYSE and NASDAQ (cite). So for those with significant equity holdings [^remember this skews rich. Approximately top 20% [[cite]], although it’s certainly possible for others to shop down in house price and stick money in the stock market.] their retirement savings / bequeathals / endowments will drop when the S&P drops.
[[[ Are pension funds unbalanced in this way? I suspect not. cite.
www.tail-risk.com/#!A-Nutty-Rule-Broken/c95u/55bbef8d0cf285bbf301ef5a
In a rational world where governments have taxation authority to screw businesses as they need to in order to balance the books, it makes sense that a corporate bond will never have a higher credit rating than the sovereign government that has taxation authority over them.
multilateral corps not confined to one sovereign nation
- http://www.nuclearphynance.com/Show%20Post.aspx?PostIDKey=150932
- more lucy kelloway links
- more ft links
- Case Shiller index
- TIPS
- falcone
- the one blair hull mentions
- booktalk with janet tavakoli
- bats o’brien video (ok it’s mostly just funny, but you can also see the face of BATS BYX CEO
- inverted exchanges?
long term profits don’t exist. neither do tails when you’re collecting premium. Unless the trader knows intuitively that the good times can’t last or that it’s a very risky move. (buying HY)
But let’s say you run a composite strategy whose tenth portfolio moments are not obvious.
How does Blair Hull know if his assessment of his strategy is sane? Looks at the statistics. [link]
Some people are on your side. Most people are indifferent to you but will be polite to you. Some people dislike you personally. And then there are evil people who want to murder and cheat whoever falls into their fly trap.
Here are some screen shots of stock market scammers.
If you take money from people who produce value at a real job, then you’ll never have to work a day in your life.
Seth Godin is a creep. Ramit Sethi is a creep. I don’t actually consider Tim Ferriss to be a creep, because he tends to focus on getting the most out of life, and he quotes Seneca.
Human brains have not had enough time to evolve since the invention of writing. [theoretically] Our culture may be really different, but maybe in some ways it isn’t. You can get decent advice just by reading the writing of old cynical dead people.
In the 1950’s everyone wanted to be an astronaut. Now they want to be data scientists and app developers. What gives?
http://www.chroniclecareers.com/article/Teach-or-Perish/151187/#sthash.GrO1hZRZ.dpuf
My undergraduates’ career plans are a peculiar mix of naked ambition and hair-shirt altruism. If they pursue investment banking, they do so not merely to make money. Rather, they wish to use their eventual wealth to distribute solar light bulbs to every resident of a developing nation. They’ll apply to the finest law schools in hopes of some day judging war criminals at The Hague. Countless want to code. They dream of engineering an app that will make tequila flow out of thin air into your outstretched shot glass. My students, I suspect, are receiving their professional advice from a council of emojis.
The role of self and employer has changed, too, I think toward the Randian. Everyone is the CEO of their own one-woman company now. ((sec:llc’s))
(brown fox copy) (john wilkins ronin institute)
Kids who have designed 3 iPhone apps whilst in university will tell you they have founded three companies. Nevermind the schizophrenic lack of focus that would imply if true. That someone would prize starting more companies over starting one company that churns out more products tells me that "making a company" is what’s interesting.
@zentree made this point on twitter
- .edu domains
- write in NYT
- opinions taken seriously
- people pay to listen to you
Like most professions, there’s someone who makes more money than you do. (And since the .1% income stretches so far above the 1%, it’s quite a lot more.) In particular administrators
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stan fish administrators
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bernstein deep risk data set
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stylised facts kuznets (invntor of "stylised fact")
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everyone deserves to know where they sit in the world
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WSJ headline misrepresenting income
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sowell on ages of blacks
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population spread in US
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black pop. density in US
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http://www.nuclearphynance.com/User%20Files/1491/image019.jpg
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make poverty history history (easterly - $1 trn wasted)
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envir. efficiency of planes
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"work less, live more" 1990’s NYT
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people working overtime when they get 1.5×
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tax breaks for uni’s to pay their students in credits
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internships at uni’s
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resampling
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random subsampling
(statistics part)
- "technology"
- total factor productivity
- admissions ("international experience", violin, water polo)
let's say you wanted to start an MBA program (price point: $150k χ Ĩ100? students)
you would need
a. a school of repute (established brand) b. attract professors to it (cost = ?? Can they get the money frmo other sources within the institution as well?) c. diverse students but also rich students
People come for the connections and perhaps for the illusion of learning. (harvard extension MBA — value = putting "Harvard Business" on your resume — instant eye candy)
What you deliver from there may or may not matter particularly a lot.
We usually think of more GDP as being a good thing. However I would submit that since the $150k is overpriced and maybe having more MBA's running around is even of a negative social value, more of these transacting in the year is not a good thing. That is not to speak of the deleterious consequences of the jobs that are produced for professors by more MBA's being sold, and the opinions / disinformation that are validated by them getting high salary cheques.
earn kudos early in career .. gather aum, scale back to beta
np thread
lever .. kill first fund
evidence from formds.com
saba capital
osprey capital